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Japanese market tendency on ferroalloys imports

TEX reported that the market tendency by item on imports of ferroalloys into Japan at June 30th 2010 is as follows:

General view
The domestic prices of manganese ferroalloys in China have continued to weaken since the end of May. Also, the price of manganese ore imported into China was able to maintain a bullish tone in the first half of 2010 but that settled for shipments in two months of July and August has remained unchanged and the excessive stocks of manganese ore accumulated in China, which are estimated to be nearly 3,000,000 tonnes, have put a substantial pressure on price of manganese ore. The Central Government of China has abolished from the third week of June to fix the exchange rate of Chinese currency CNY against US Dollar and allowed to loosen the regulations for exchange rate of CNY. Accordingly, the latest exchange rate of CNY per USD has strengthened by 0.555% but the changes of prices for exports of Chinese ferroalloys are so far not seen. Also, the Government announced on June 22nd 2010 to revoke from July 15th 2010 export tax rebates for steel products to be shipped from Chin and this revocation of rebates is thought to put a considerable influence on exportable prices of Chinese steel products. Incidentally, domestic prices of steel products in China have weakened and, simultaneously, dark clouds are hanging over the steel market of China. The current production of crude steel in China has been going on a favorable tone but, on the contrary, domestic prices of steel products in China are flowing on a dark tide.

Ferrosilicon
The latest price of standard ferrosilicon offered from China to the USA is USD 1,380 per tonne FOB, having fallen by USD 30 to USD 50 per tonne. The purchases of ferrosilicon in the USA have made the rounds. On the other hand, Chinese suppliers succeeded in a rise of USD 30 to USD 40 per tonne, which was materialized in an early part of June for export to Japan, but, after that, price of Chinese ferrosilicon has no change. Chinese ferrosilicon is now being offered at USD 1,450 to USD 1,470 per tonne CIF Japan as remained unchanged. Therefore, price of Chinese ferrosilicon for Japan so far does not move but, owing to a raise of electricity fees, the cost to produce ferrosilicon in China is increasing gradually to sustain the market.

Silicomanganese
The price of silicomanganese offered from India once continued to fall but has still traced on a tendency to weaken further and finally come down to a level of USD 1,400 per tonne CIF Japan, which has fallen by USD 150 per tonne in comparison with the high level once offered from India in May. Chinese silicomanganese has still included the factors to increase its production cost but it is difficult to reflect the factors on the price to be offered for export. On the contrary, Chinese suppliers have been requested by Japanese trading companies to offer silicomanganese at a similar price to that offered from India. The negotiations with electric furnace mills on Yen price of silicomanganese for July to September quarter passed a peak but the reactions were thin. The background is a mood to sell Indian silicomanganese at discounted prices and the target to settle Yen price of silicomanganese with electric furnace mills at JPY 160,000 to JPY 170,000 per tonne delivered to mills for July to September quarter is supposed to be most difficult for the trading companies concerned. A normal extent to rise price of silicomanganese for the third quarter is thought to be CNY 2,000 to JPY 3,000 per tonne higher than those fixed for the preceding quarter of April to June and the negotiations were taken place all the time on a sluggish tone. The purchases of silicomanganese through tenders sporadically obtained lower prices in relation to disposal of the stocked cargoes and a lower price than JPY 150,000 per ton has become a normal level.

Charge chrome
The negotiations with European mills on price of South African charge chrome for shipments in July to September quarter started from an early part of June but lost its strength and, reflecting a change of the circumstances, turned to be inevitable to reduce the price. The reasons are the weakened exchange rate of Euro currency against US dollar and the fallen prices of high carbon ferrochrome in domestic market of China. Consequently, South African producers have been driven to adjust an extent to be reduced. Many of the parties concerned have a view that the final price of charge chrome to be settled between South African producers and European stainless steel mills is anticipated to be on a line of 125 to 130 per pound of chrome on DDP base.

Low carbon ferrochrome
In relation to the price of low carbon ferrochrome to be settled with regular consumers in Japan for shipments in July to September quarter of 2010, the producers in Russia and Kazakhstan have finally succeeded in a rise of the price as earnestly desired by them. These producers once insisted on the fact that recent price of low carbon ferrochrome settled with Japanese consumers is not payable for their production cost in comparison with that of high carbon ferrochrome, and a serious request to rise price of low carbon material was placed before consumers.

Accordingly, the prices of low carbon ferrochrome with C 0.1% maximum contracted for July to September quarter are in the range of 205 to 208 US cents per pound of chrome CIF Japan, having risen by 13 to 15 US cents compared with those fixed for April to June quarter. When the negotiations commenced, producers' side aimed to rise to a higher price than 210 US cents per pound of chrome as prevailed on spot market at that time but this rise was not successful, because the market price of low carbon ferrochrome in Europe had already changed to the situation, having reached the ceiling level.

Silicon metal
The current prices of silicon metal with 5.5.3 grade offered from China are in the range of USD 2,130 to USD 2,150 per tonne CIF Japan, having remained without a substantial change. However, the discounted price of USD 2,100 CIF has been sporadically seen. The trading companies concerned have an opinion that Chinese producers are utilizing low fee of electricity through hydroelectric power generation in summer time and, because of the circumstances, still keeping profitability for their production of silicon metal.

Manganese metal
The Central Government of China enforces from July 15th 2010 their revocation of 5% tax rebate for export of manganese metal briquettes and it is marked to see how extent does this abolishment of export tax rebate influence on the market of manganese metal in China. Chinese processors of manganese briquettes have given their attention to export declaration of this commodity to be applied to customs offices from July 15th 2010 and held back to make a new offer. When export tax rebate is revoked, the cost is estimated to have a raise of USD 100 to USD 120 per tonne.

According to a presumption by the parties concerned, the prices of electrolytic manganese metal (in form of flakes) contracted in the last 2 weeks to export from China are thought to be in the range of USD 2,800 to USD 2,850 per tonne FOB. Export tax rebate for electrolytic manganese metal (flakes) was already revoked from August of 2005 and does not originally concern with the problem of manganese briquettes as arisen in this time. However, the actual quantity of manganese briquettes exported from China is unable to know and, therefore, it is difficult to ascertain an extent to put an influence on the whole export of manganese metal.

For a reference, owing a heavy rainfall attacked Huanan district of China, where is a main base to produce electrolytic manganese metal, the quantity of electrolytic manganese metal to be produced in Jishou Luxi area has been reduced by nearly 90% and, accordingly, the supply situation of this metal in China is moving to tighten.

Molybdenum
Market price of molybdenum oxide is still fluctuating. The bottom price of molybdenum oxide was USD 13.5 per pound of Mo as seen in the middle of June. After that, price of molybdenum oxide rallied somewhat but was unable to rise further and faced the wall of USD 15. As far as a breathless feeling of monetary market has continued in Europe, traders are unable to move on new purchases of molybdenum and have to take a positive attitude for disposal of the cargoes held by them.

Ferrovanadium
The union of Eskom, national electric power corporation in South Africa, already announced to go on a strike from next week and, as South Africa is the largest country to produce vanadium in the world, an anxiety for the situation in South Africa has come up but this labor dispute is so far not affecting vanadium prices. Dealers are now offering ferrovanadium at USD 28.5 to USD 30.0 per kilogram of V CIF Japan.

 
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